2018 Predictions from Continuing Care Actuaries

Written by Brad Paulis, A.S.A., F.C.A., M.A.A.A.

1.) Increased Demand

The number of seniors leaving their homes and moving into Senior Housing will continue to increase as the demographics are just starting to overwhelm the industry. The oldest baby boomers are now in their early 70’s and starting to consider senior housing. Are you prepared for the increased demand and can you capture it?

2.) Expansion of the @Home Concept

With the number of seniors dramatically increasing, services for those who desire to stay in their home will also need to increase. There is a significant increase in the number of communities exploring at Home Programs. Expect exponential growth in this market segment.

3.) Increased Competition

The for‐profit segment understands this demographic change. Expect increased competition on the rental side as for‐profits see an opportunity. Additionally, expect more for‐profits to enter the entry‐fee model retirement community.

4.) Increased Use of Technology

Technology, both within communities and in homes will enable individuals to stay in independent settings longer. Healthcare utilization long‐term will permanently decline over time, and acuity levels of your independent living will likely increase.

5.) Pricing Pressures

The increased pressure from for‐profits and increased utilization of technology in homes will be the primary challenge in the ability of not‐for profits to capture the increased demand. Maintaining competitive fees and implementing operational changes with the use of technology may be necessary and ultimately result in increased occupancy.

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