By Karen Adams, Vice President of Market Intelligence
Better data, better insights
Love & Company has always relied on analytics and employed data-based decision-making so improved data are important to us, particularly as we measure unmet demand for senior living options and identify new opportunities for our clients. We are continually on the hunt for it.
Better data increase the likelihood of better decision outcomes. At Love & Company we are very excited to now have data on older adult markets that have not been available previously, and in configurations that allow for enhanced accuracy and deeper analyses of markets, particularly for independent and assisted living.
We are pleased to be working with StratoDem Analytics, a company that “helps clients across the real estate sector prepare for economic and demographic forces shaping market outcomes by building predictive models on massive economic and demographic data.”
StratoDem has a focus on senior living and real estate, which goes well beyond curating census data into broad age and income groups, to providing more granular segmenting of variables and integrating multiple data sources to estimate key indicators in the markets.
We have historically been dependent on large companies that curate decennial census and American Community Survey data, parse them into age groups and develop estimates for the current year and five-year projections for some variables. The data from those sources look much the same today as they have for literally decades.
The data advantages we are recognizing include – but are not limited to – the following:
1) More granular data that help us to distinguish levels of living and measure near future markets. Where other databases have combined age groups (65-74 and 75+), we now have data for pivotal markets (70-74 and 75-79) that eliminate the need for simplistic extrapolations when estimating unmet demand and need for independent and assisted living.
2) Localized data on the need for assistance to measure the markets for assisted living and memory care. Many studies show variation in rates of disability across different regions of the country, even with smaller market areas.
3) Migration data by age, which can inform the impacts of very large campus/es on penetration rates, making them unrealistically high. Rather than misreading a market, there may still be opportunities for communities that are smaller. Data on migration are also important for understanding the growth in many markets.
4) Interim-year estimates and projections: Rather than five-year estimates and projections, the data are updated frequently and available for individual years, which is particularly valuable when a community may be opening in years between the five-year periods.
5) Data that are based on multiple data sources to enhance both accuracy and timeliness including:
- Home values that are based on Census Bureau microdata and FHFA hyper-local home price indexes as well as other third-party, nongovernmental open data sources to improve and validate the models.-
- Home values that are provided by age groups, which allow us to undertake deeper analyses of markets such as step penetration rates that are based on more reliable data.
- Household net worth by age that integrate multiple data sources and more complex analytics to provide more accurate data than have been historically available. Additionally, the data are reported up to higher levels than we had previously.
Other important characteristics that made this decision worth the investment for Love & Company include:
1) First and foremost, we highly value the ability to work as a partner to develop new data points and refine the process of accessing data, which results in greater efficiencies and explores new data opportunities. As a result, what we can achieve going forward extends well beyond simply purchasing prepackaged data.
2) StratoDem is working with many larger senior living providers and funders. It goes beyond curating databases to developing sophisticated analytic tools for the senior living markets. As a result, we look forward to the possibilities for new data to emerge in the future.
We believe this is a very worthwhile investment as we develop critical recommendations for our clients. Of course, the data alone do not paint a picture of the environment in which an organization is operating. Experience and thoughtfulness in the design of the analysis are critical to obtaining an accurate evaluation of opportunities.
We have always invested time at the front end of our studies in working with our clients to incorporate their knowledge of local markets and their in-house data to ensure that the underlying structure of the study is accurate. Similarly, our data on the competitive environment are detailed and accurate.
Now we have more and better information to enhance your decision-making.
For more resources focused on senior living market intelligence and consumer research, click here.